When it Reset

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Public channels

Evidence ledger

Verified = a first-hand post (Codex leads, official accounts) or a status-page original. Reported = someone else retelling it. Full resets, banked credits, official schedules, and your personal window are four different things. We never log into your account.

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✓ Verified 0Reported 0 0 items

When the next one might land

Official schedule first · historical gaps · conditional rates

Official schedules come first. Otherwise we use verified full-reset gaps for a median date and IQR window, then an empirical rate: of historical waits that already lasted this long, how many reset in the next 24/48 hours. Too few samples or noisy gaps → no date. Confidence is capped at 60%. The 24/48h rate is never the homepage hero.

How the model works

We borrow discrete-time survival (willtiboreset) and evidence lineage (codex-reset-forecaster), without community-noise weights and without putting 24/48h probability on the homepage. Official schedules are facts. Statistics use verified full resets only. Conditional rates are shown as k/n so you see the sample, not a marketing percentage.

  1. A verified official schedule is shown as a landing time, not as a probability.
  2. Verified full resets merge within 12 hours; we take the median gap and IQR window.
  3. Conditional rate: of historical gaps that already lasted this long, k/n reset in the next 24/48h. Hidden if n < 3.
  4. Confidence = (1 − IQR/median) × sample discount, capped at 60%. Too noisy → wait for a post.

Ledger

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